Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
