A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
